Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.16%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.