Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 56.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 21.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 1-2 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.