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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Grigor Dimitrov - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Miami Open quarter-final clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Grigor Dimitrov, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz will be hoping to reach the last four of the Miami Masters when he meets Grigor Dimitrov at the quarter-final stage on Thursday.

The Spaniard overcame Lorenzo Musetti at the last-16 stage, while Dimitrov defeated Hubert Hurkacz.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz in action at the Miami Open on March 27, 2024© Reuters

Having bounced back from a recent drop in form to retain his Indian Wells Open title earlier this month, Alcaraz appears on course to complete the "Sunshine Double" and win the Miami Open for the second time in his career, having defeated Casper Ruud in the 2022 final before losing in the semi-finals last year.

The 20-year-old is yet to drop a set across three matches in Miami, losing just three games to his compatriot Roberto Carballes Baena in his opening match, before defeating Gael Monfils in a hugely entertaining encounter in the next round.

The highly dangerous Musetti was expected to cause Alcaraz more problems on Tuesday, but the reigning Wimbledon champion comfortably held his opponent at arm's length to win 6-3 6-3. The first set was a breeze for Alcaraz, who wrapped up a double break, before responding immediately to being broken himself in the second set and eventually serving for the match.

Having been defeated by Dimitrov in their most recent meeting last year, Alcaraz will be wary of the Bulgarian. However, on current form, it is likely to take something very special to stop Alcaraz, who is arguably the most dynamic player in world tennis right now.

Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria wins the quarterfinal match against Roger Federer of Switzerland on day nine of the 2019 US Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 4, 2019© Reuters

Indeed, Dimitrov's return to form was captured by that surprising victory against Alcaraz at the Shanghai Masters last October, before going on to reach the final of the Paris Masters a few weeks later.

The 32-year-old ended a seven-year trophy drought when lifting the Brisbane International in January, beating Holger Rune in the final, and he is on the brink of returning to the world's top 10 after coming from behind to knock out Hurkacz on Tuesday.

The big-serving Pole edged the first set 6-3 before Dimitrov won the second set by the same scoreline, with very little to split the pair in the deciding set. Hurkacz would have fancied his chances once it went to a tie-break, but Dimitrov held his nerve to break his opponent's serve twice - including when Hurkacz touched the net with his foot after hitting a volleyed winner - and progress to the last eight.

That completed a career set of reaching the quarter-finals at all nine of the ATP Masters 1000 tournaments. Dimitrov is one of only four men born in 1990 or later to have achieved this feat, joining Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev. It will take a phenomenal effort for him to make it any further when he takes on Alcaraz, though.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

Second round: vs. Roberto Carballaes Baena 6-2 6-1
Third round: vs. Gael Monfils 6-2 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-3 6-3

Grigor Dimitrov:

Second round: vs. Alejandro Tabilo 6-7[5] 7-6[5] 6-2
Third round: vs. Yannick Hanfmann 6-1 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Hubert Hurkacz 3-6 6-3 7-6[3]


Head To Head

Shanghai Masters (2023) - Last-16: Dimitrov def. Alcaraz 5-7 6-2 6-4
Queen's Club (2023) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz def. Dimitrov 6-4 6-4
Madrid Open (2023) - Last-32: Alcaraz def. Dimitrov 6-2 7-5
Paris Masters (2022) - Last-16: Alcaraz def. Dimitrov 6-1 6-3

After losing each of their first three meetings against each other, Dimitrov finally defeated Alcaraz for the first time at the Shanghai Masters in October last year. The two players came into that match in contrasting form, with Alcaraz facing a crisis of confidence by his own high standards and Dimitrov playing the finest level of tennis that he has produced for several years.

The latter has remained the case for the most part since, but Alcaraz appears back to his incredible best after triumphing at Indian Wells earlier this month, and he will be confident of returning to winning ways against his experienced opponent.


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We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets

Alcaraz has played some phenomenal tennis in the United States this month, dropping just two sets across eight successive victories. Dimitrov will hold plenty of confidence having beaten the Spaniard in their most recent encounter, but he may struggle to match his opponent's firepower.

The 20-year-old may be pushed harder than at any stage at this tournament so far, but we expect him to wrap it up in straight sets once again.

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Carlos Alcaraz in action at the Miami Open on March 27, 2024
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