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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.64%) and 2-0 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Twente | Draw | Ajax |
41.4% ( -0.83) | 22.38% ( -0.31) | 36.21% ( 1.15) |
Both teams to score 67.6% ( 1.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.16% ( 1.83) | 32.84% ( -1.83) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.46% ( 2.08) | 54.54% ( -2.07) |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.35% ( 0.42) | 16.65% ( -0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.49% ( 0.74) | 46.5% ( -0.73) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.11% ( 1.38) | 18.89% ( -1.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.63% ( 2.25) | 50.36% ( -2.25) |
Score Analysis |
FC Twente | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.35) 3-1 @ 5.03% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 3.02% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.05) 4-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.51% Total : 41.4% | 1-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.36) 2-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.31) 3-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.17) Other @ 0.49% Total : 22.38% | 1-2 @ 7.83% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.28) 0-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.35% ( 0.21) 2-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.16) 2-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.16) 0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.08) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.67% Total : 36.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
7 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 47 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 66 | -20 | 26 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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