Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.09%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 34.66% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.43%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (12.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.