Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 42.27%. A draw had a probability of 30.9% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 26.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.95%) and 2-1 (7.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.27%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.