Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 47.51%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 25.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensor Sporting in this match.