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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 7, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado
Defensor

Puerto Cabello
3 - 2
Defensor

Romero (1', 1'), Ladislao Fedor Flores (36'), Miku (36'), Covea (88', 88')
Congo (7'), Congo (7'), Cobos (65'), Cobos (65'), Bravo (71'), Bravo (71'), Covea (90+1'), Covea (90+1')
FT(HT: 4-2)
Bernal (24', 24'), Rivero (67' pen., 67' pen.)
Barco (54'), Barco (54'), Bernal (80'), Bernal (80'), De Los Santos (90+7'), De Los Santos (90+7')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Academia Puerto Cabello and Defensor Sporting.

Form, Standings, Stats

Academia Puerto Cabello

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Tolima 3-1 Puerto Cabello
Wednesday, June 28 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Defensor Sporting

All competitions
Last Game: Defensor 0-2 Danubio
Thursday, December 7 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Academia Puerto Cabello win with a probability of 38.78%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Academia Puerto Cabello win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Academia Puerto Cabello would win this match.

Result
Academia Puerto CabelloDrawDefensor Sporting
38.78% (0.045999999999999 0.05)28.08% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)33.14% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.28% (0.047000000000004 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.24% (0.058999999999997 0.06)58.76% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.72% (0.047000000000001 0.05)79.28% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Academia Puerto Cabello Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.58% (0.057000000000002 0.06)29.42% (-0.062000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.58% (0.067999999999998 0.07)65.42% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)
Defensor Sporting Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)33% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.41% (0.012 0.01)69.59% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Academia Puerto Cabello 38.78%
    Defensor Sporting 33.14%
    Draw 28.07%
Academia Puerto CabelloDrawDefensor Sporting
1-0 @ 11.88%
2-1 @ 8.06% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.27% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.29% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.96% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.82% (0.006 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.01% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 0.91% (0.003 0)
Other @ 1.6%
Total : 38.78%
1-1 @ 13.16% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.71% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.47% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 28.07%
0-1 @ 10.76% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 7.3%
0-2 @ 5.97% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.7% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.21% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.65% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 33.14%