Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Jun 28, 2023 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Tolima
3 - 1
Puerto Cabello

Guzman (5', 5'), Bone (27', 27'), Herazo (43', 43')

FT(HT: 6-2)

Jose Figueroa Aviles (45+1'), Figueroa (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Deportes Tolima and Academia Puerto Cabello, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportes Tolima

Last Game: Sao Paulo 5-0 Tolima
Thursday, June 8 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Academia Puerto Cabello

Last Game: Tigre 2-1 Puerto Cabello
Wednesday, June 7 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Academia Puerto Cabello had a probability of 23.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for an Academia Puerto Cabello win it was 0-1 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Deportes Tolima would win this match.

Result
Deportes Tolima	Draw	Academia Puerto Cabello
51.11% ( 0.06)	25.42% ( 0.03)	23.47% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 49.01% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.36% (

-0.18)

53.64% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.86% (

-0.15)

75.13% (

0.15)

Deportes Tolima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.99% (

-0.05)

21% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.22% (

-0.07)

53.78% (

0.07)

Academia Puerto Cabello Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.04% (

-0.18)

37.96% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.27% (

-0.18)

74.73% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Deportes Tolima 51.11%

Academia Puerto Cabello 23.47%

Draw 25.42%

Deportes Tolima	Draw	Academia Puerto Cabello
1-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.97% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.45% Total : 51.11%	1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.84% Total : 25.42%	0-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.6% Total : 23.47%