Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 2, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Sao Paulo

Tolima
0 - 0
Sao Paulo

FT
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Deportes Tolima and Sao Paulo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportes Tolima

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Last Game: Tolima 1-2 Tigre
Friday, April 21 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
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Sao Paulo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Coritiba 1-1 Sao Paulo
Saturday, April 29 at 8.30pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 47.49%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 25.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.18%) and 1-2 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Deportes Tolima win it was 1-0 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.

Result
Deportes TolimaDrawSao Paulo
25.83% (-0.035 -0.04)26.68% (0.036000000000001 0.04)47.49% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Both teams to score 47.64% (-0.132 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.45% (-0.16 -0.16)56.55% (0.155 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.47% (-0.13 -0.13)77.53% (0.12599999999999 0.13)
Deportes Tolima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.55% (-0.117 -0.12)37.45% (0.114 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.76% (-0.118 -0.12)74.23% (0.114 0.11)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.16% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)23.83% (0.07 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.99% (-0.103 -0.1)58.01% (0.098999999999997 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Deportes Tolima 25.83%
    Sao Paulo 47.49%
    Draw 26.68%
Deportes TolimaDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 8.77% (0.025 0.03)
2-1 @ 6.17% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
2-0 @ 4.31% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 2.02% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.45% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.41% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 25.83%
1-1 @ 12.57% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.93% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 4.43% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 26.68%
0-1 @ 12.8% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-2 @ 9.18% (0.017000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 9.02% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.39%
1-3 @ 4.31% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.12% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.57% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.55% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 47.49%