Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 10, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Tolima
1 - 0
Junior

Hernandez (7')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Deportes Tolima and Atletico Junior.

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportes Tolima

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Last Game: Flamengo 7-1 Tolima
Thursday, July 7 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Atletico Junior

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Last Game: Junior 0-4 Union
Friday, May 27 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 43.57%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Atletico Junior had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for an Atletico Junior win it was 0-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Deportes Tolima in this match.

Result
Deportes TolimaDrawAtletico Junior
43.57% (-0.108 -0.11)28.72% (0.169 0.17)27.7% (-0.061 -0.06)
Both teams to score 43.47% (-0.46700000000001 -0.47)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.49% (-0.566 -0.57)62.5% (0.567 0.57)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.89% (-0.415 -0.41)82.11% (0.41500000000001 0.42)
Deportes Tolima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.46% (-0.331 -0.33)28.54% (0.334 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.67% (-0.41800000000001 -0.42)64.33% (0.419 0.42)
Atletico Junior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.84% (-0.36799999999999 -0.37)39.16% (0.369 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.13% (-0.348 -0.35)75.87% (0.349 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Deportes Tolima 43.57%
    Atletico Junior 27.7%
    Draw 28.7%
Deportes TolimaDrawAtletico Junior
1-0 @ 14.01% (0.17 0.17)
2-0 @ 8.78% (0.022 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.24% (-0.061999999999999 -0.06)
3-0 @ 3.67% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.44% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-2 @ 1.61% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.15% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.08% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 1.59%
Total : 43.57%
1-1 @ 13.13% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 11.17% (0.23 0.23)
2-2 @ 3.86% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 28.7%
0-1 @ 10.47% (0.11 0.11)
1-2 @ 6.16% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.91% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.93% (-0.035 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.21% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 27.7%