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Copa Libertadores

Flamengo
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Jul 7, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estádio Olímpico João Havelange

Flamengo
7 - 1
Tolima

Pedro (5', 47', 67', 79'), Quinones (20' og.), Barbosa (56'), Franca (73')
Pereira (61'), Luiz (85')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Quinones (63')
Marulanda (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Flamengo and Deportes Tolima, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

Last Six:
Last Game: Santos 1-2 Flamengo
Saturday, July 2 at 11pm in Brasileiro

Deportes Tolima

Last Six:
    Last Game: Tolima 0-1 Flamengo
    Thursday, June 30 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 52.84%. A win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 24.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

    The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Deportes Tolima win was 1-2 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.

    Result
    FlamengoDrawDeportes Tolima
    52.84% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)22.57% (-0.035999999999998 -0.04)24.59% (0.128 0.13)
    Both teams to score 59.4% (0.279 0.28)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    59.5% (0.303 0.3)40.5% (-0.297 -0.3)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    37.12% (0.31 0.31)62.88% (-0.304 -0.3)
    Flamengo Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    84.62% (0.081999999999994 0.08)15.39% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    55.81% (0.14400000000001 0.14)44.19% (-0.139 -0.14)
    Deportes Tolima Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    70.2% (0.26600000000001 0.27)29.81% (-0.26 -0.26)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    34.12% (0.319 0.32)65.88% (-0.31400000000001 -0.31)
    Score Analysis
        Flamengo 52.84%
        Deportes Tolima 24.59%
        Draw 22.57%
    FlamengoDrawDeportes Tolima
    2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
    1-0 @ 8.58% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
    2-0 @ 8.03% (-0.068 -0.07)
    3-1 @ 6.07% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
    3-0 @ 5.01% (-0.029 -0.03)
    3-2 @ 3.67% (0.032 0.03)
    4-1 @ 2.84% (0.011 0.01)
    4-0 @ 2.35% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
    4-2 @ 1.72% (0.019 0.02)
    5-1 @ 1.06% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
    Other @ 3.79%
    Total : 52.84%
    		1-1 @ 10.39% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
    2-2 @ 5.89% (0.035 0.04)
    0-0 @ 4.59% (-0.063 -0.06)
    3-3 @ 1.48% (0.024 0.02)
    Other @ 0.23%
    Total : 22.57%
    		1-2 @ 6.29% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
    0-1 @ 5.55% (-0.035 -0.04)
    0-2 @ 3.36% (0.0029999999999997 0)
    1-3 @ 2.54% (0.027 0.03)
    2-3 @ 2.38% (0.032 0.03)
    0-3 @ 1.36% (0.011 0.01)
    Other @ 3.12%
    Total : 24.59%

    How you voted: Flamengo vs Tolima

    Flamengo
    85.0%
    Draw
    10.0%
    Deportes Tolima
    5.0%
    20
    Head to Head
    Jun 30, 2022 1.30am
    Tolima
    0-1
    Flamengo

    Riascos (52'), Garcia (58')
    Pereira (17')
    Pereira (19'), Diego (49'), Barbosa (52'), Luiz (90+1')