Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 53.74%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 20.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.23%) and 1-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Deportes Tolima win it was 1-0 (8.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Flamengo in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Flamengo.