Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 7, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Puerto Cabello
0 - 2
Tolima

FT(HT: 0-1)
Herazo (45+5'), Estiven Guzman Gomez (56' pen.), Guzman (56' pen.)
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Academia Puerto Cabello and Deportes Tolima.

Form, Standings, Stats

Academia Puerto Cabello

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Last Game: Caracas 0-1 Puerto Cabello
Wednesday, March 8 at 12am in Copa Sudamericana
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Deportes Tolima

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Last Game: Tolima 1-0 Junior
Friday, March 10 at 12am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 35.7%. A win for Academia Puerto Cabello had a probability of 34.77% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.3%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Academia Puerto Cabello win was 1-0 (12.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportes Tolima would win this match.

Result
Academia Puerto CabelloDrawDeportes Tolima
34.77% (0.159 0.16)29.53% (0.024999999999999 0.02)35.7% (-0.185 -0.18)
Both teams to score 43.38% (-0.064 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.38% (-0.077999999999996 -0.08)63.61% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.09% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)82.91% (0.055000000000007 0.06)
Academia Puerto Cabello Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.55% (0.066000000000003 0.07)34.44% (-0.067 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.84% (0.070999999999998 0.07)71.16% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Deportes Tolima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.18% (-0.16399999999999 -0.16)33.82% (0.16399999999999 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.52% (-0.176 -0.18)70.48% (0.176 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Academia Puerto Cabello 34.76%
    Deportes Tolima 35.69%
    Draw 29.53%
Academia Puerto CabelloDrawDeportes Tolima
1-0 @ 12.41% (0.06 0.06)
2-1 @ 7.17% (0.014 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.62% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
3-1 @ 2.55% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.35% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.38%
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 34.76%
1-1 @ 13.46% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 11.64% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.89% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 29.53%
0-1 @ 12.62% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
1-2 @ 7.3% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-2 @ 6.85% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.64% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.47% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.41% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 35.69%