Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 8, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Caracas
0 - 1
Puerto Cabello

FT(HT: 0-0)
Hernandez (53')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Caracas and Academia Puerto Cabello.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caracas

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Last Game: Athletico PR 5-1 Caracas
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Academia Puerto Cabello

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Last Game: Puerto Cabello 0-1 Metropolitanos
Thursday, April 8 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caracas win with a probability of 52.31%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Academia Puerto Cabello had a probability of 21.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caracas win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.18%), while for an Academia Puerto Cabello win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
CaracasDrawAcademia Puerto Cabello
52.31% (-0.259 -0.26)26.18% (0.041 0.04)21.51% (0.22 0.22)
Both teams to score 44.69% (0.163 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.86% (0.071000000000005 0.07)58.14% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.2% (0.055 0.05)78.8% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Caracas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.65% (-0.081999999999994 -0.08)22.35% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.17% (-0.123 -0.12)55.83% (0.123 0.12)
Academia Puerto Cabello Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.55% (0.272 0.27)42.45% (-0.272 -0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.18% (0.232 0.23)78.82% (-0.23100000000001 -0.23)
Score Analysis
    Caracas 52.31%
    Academia Puerto Cabello 21.51%
    Draw 26.18%
CaracasDrawAcademia Puerto Cabello
1-0 @ 14.21% (-0.069999999999999 -0.07)
2-0 @ 10.65% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.13% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 5.32% (-0.053999999999999 -0.05)
3-1 @ 4.56% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.99% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.95% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.71% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 52.31%
1-1 @ 12.18% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 9.49% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.91% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 26.18%
0-1 @ 8.13% (0.039 0.04)
1-2 @ 5.22% (0.051 0.05)
0-2 @ 3.48% (0.042 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.49% (0.025 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.12% (0.017 0.02)
0-3 @ 0.99% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 1.08%
Total : 21.51%