MX23RW : Friday, July 1 01:38:15| >> :600:215563:215563:
May 26, 2022 at 11pm UK at Arena da Baixada
Athletico PR
5 - 1
Caracas
Pablo (19', 22'), Christian (45+1', 71'), Rocha (75')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Rivero (58')
Suarez (55'), Notaroberto (90+1')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Athletico Paranaense and Caracas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Juventude 1-3 Athletico PR
Wednesday, June 8 at 11pm in Brasileiro
Next Game: Fortaleza vs. Athletico PR
Sunday, June 12 at 11pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Athletico PR 5-1 Caracas
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Athletico Paranaense 2-1 Caracas

With a place in the final 16 on the line, we predict a tight and cagey affair in Brazil that could go either way. However, Athletico Paranaense have the stronger squad on paper, and with home advantage, they should have enough to just get over the line. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 17.78%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Athletico ParanaenseDrawCaracas
58.46% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03) 23.76% (-0.181 -0.18) 17.78% (0.215 0.22)
Both teams to score 45.76% (0.873 0.87)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.26% (0.964 0.96)53.74% (-0.964 -0.96)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.78% (0.806 0.81)75.22% (-0.80800000000001 -0.81)
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.84% (0.346 0.35)18.16% (-0.347 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.86% (0.588 0.59)49.14% (-0.589 -0.59)
Caracas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.91% (0.834 0.83)44.08% (-0.834 -0.83)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.81% (0.674 0.67)80.19% (-0.675 -0.67)
Score Analysis
    Athletico Paranaense 58.44%
    Caracas 17.78%
    Draw 23.76%
Athletico ParanaenseDrawCaracas
1-0 @ 13.65% (-0.37 -0.37)
2-0 @ 11.64% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-1 @ 9.54% (0.074 0.07)
3-0 @ 6.62% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.43% (0.102 0.1)
4-0 @ 2.83% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.31% (0.069 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.22% (0.091 0.09)
5-0 @ 0.96% (0.017 0.02)
4-2 @ 0.95% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 58.44%
1-1 @ 11.18% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 8.01% (-0.307 -0.31)
2-2 @ 3.91% (0.119 0.12)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 23.76%
0-1 @ 6.56% (-0.095999999999999 -0.1)
1-2 @ 4.58% (0.089 0.09)
0-2 @ 2.69% (0.023 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.25% (0.053 0.05)
2-3 @ 1.07% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 1.63%
Total : 17.78%

How you voted: Athletico PR vs Caracas

Athletico Paranaense
86.7%
Draw
13.3%
Caracas
0.0%
15
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2022 11.15pm
Caracas
0-0
Athletico PR

Notaroberto (66')

Moura (66')
Oct 3, 2018 11.30pm
Athletico PR
2-1
Caracas
Cirino (31'), Lodi (58')
Martins (63'), Andre (76')
Garces (49')
Hernandez (28'), Martins (63'), Arrieta (78'), Garces (80'), Quijada (86'), Guerra (92')
Sep 19, 2018 11.30pm
Caracas
0-2
Athletico PR

Canelon (44'), Garces (63')
Veiga (42', 73')
Gonzalez (51')

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