Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 71.09%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 10.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.51%) and 3-0 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Deportes Tolima win it was 0-1 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Sao Paulo	Draw	Deportes Tolima
71.09% ( -0.38)	18.65% ( 0.24)	10.27% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 41.77% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.62% (

-0.58)

48.38% (

0.59)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.48% (

-0.53)

70.52% (

0.54)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.67% (

-0.27)

12.33% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.87% (

-0.58)

38.14% (

0.59)

Deportes Tolima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.64% (

-0.08)

52.36% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.76% (

-0.05)

86.24% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Sao Paulo 71.08%

Deportes Tolima 10.27%

Draw 18.65%

Sao Paulo	Draw	Deportes Tolima
2-0 @ 14.14% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 13.51% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 9.87% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.39% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.82% Total : 71.08%	1-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.49% Total : 18.65%	0-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.91% Total : 10.27%