Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.52%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 (11.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.