Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Racing de Montevideo would win this match.