Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.