Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 58.82%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 20.95% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.8%) and 0-1 (7.16%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (5.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.