Eredivisie | Gameweek 1

Aug 12, 2023 at 7pm UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
4 - 1
Heracles

Medic (45+8'), Kudus (75'), Bergwijn (85', 90+6' pen.)
Tahirovic (61'), Rensch (74')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Engels (45+5')
Hoogma (10'), Ouahim (56'), Engels (58'), Bruns (74'), Limbombe (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and Heracles, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Dortmund 3-1 Ajax
Sunday, August 6 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Heracles

All competitions

Last Game: Heracles 2-0 Jong Ajax
Friday, May 19 at 7pm in Eerste Divisie

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.27%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 19.05% and a draw had a probability of 18.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.45%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (4.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Heracles
62.27% ( 0.02)	18.69% ( 0.02)	19.05% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 65.52% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.02% (

-0.17)

28.98% (

0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.05% (

-0.21)

49.95% (

0.21)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.92% (

-0.04)

9.08% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.14% (

-0.11)

30.85% (

0.11)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.06% (

-0.15)

27.94% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.43% (

-0.19)

63.57% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Ajax 62.27%

Heracles 19.05%

Draw 18.69%

Ajax	Draw	Heracles
2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.45% 2-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.68% 5-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.32% Total : 62.27%	1-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.44% Total : 18.69%	1-2 @ 4.95% 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.06% ( 0) Other @ 4.18% Total : 19.05%