/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Flogdor.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fajalog.png)
-
Julian Brandt
6'
-
Felix Nmecha
54'
-
Felix Nmecha
60'
-
Brian Brobbey
7'
-
Mohammed Kudus
38'
-
Branco van den Boomen
79'
-
Brian Brobbey
89'
Borussia Dortmund vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F30%2Fborussia-dortmund.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.33%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.86%) and 3-2 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result
Borussia Dortmund
47.33%
▲
(+0.04)
Draw
20.8%
▼
(-0.01)
Ajax
31.87%
▼
(-0.04)
Both Teams to Score:
72.24%
▲
(+0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5
73.74%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 2.5
26.26%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 3.5
53.45%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 3.5
46.55%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 4.5
33.98%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 4.5
66.02%
▼
(-0.02)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5
87.96%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 0.5
12.04%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 1.5
62.48%
▲
(+0.03)
Under 1.5
37.52%
▼
(-0.03)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5
82.13%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 0.5
17.87%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 1.5
51.35%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 1.5
48.65%
▲
(+0.02)
Score analysis
Borussia Dortmund
47.33%
Draw
20.8%
Ajax
31.87%
Borussia Dortmund
2-1
@
8.3%
▲
(+0.01)
3-1 @ 5.86% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 5.05% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 4.82% ▲ (+0.01)
1-0 @ 4.56%
3-0 @ 3.4% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 3.1% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 2.67% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 1.8% ▲ (+0.01)
4-3 @ 1.53% ▲ (+0.01)
5-1 @ 1.31% ▲ (+0.01)
5-2 @ 1.13% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 47.33%
3-1 @ 5.86% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 5.05% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 4.82% ▲ (+0.01)
1-0 @ 4.56%
3-0 @ 3.4% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 3.1% ▲ (+0.01)
4-2 @ 2.67% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 1.8% ▲ (+0.01)
4-3 @ 1.53% ▲ (+0.01)
5-1 @ 1.31% ▲ (+0.01)
5-2 @ 1.13% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 47.33%
Draw
1-1
@
7.84%
▼
(-0.01)
2-2 @ 7.15% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 2.9%
0-0 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 20.8%
2-2 @ 7.15% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 2.9%
0-0 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 20.8%
Ajax
1-2
@
6.75%
▼
(-0.01)
2-3 @ 4.1% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.88% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 3.7% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.83% ▼ (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.77% ▼ (-0.01)
1-4 @ 1.67% ▼ (-0.01)
3-4 @ 1.25% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.73%
Total : 31.87%
2-3 @ 4.1% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.88% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 3.7% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.83% ▼ (-0.01)
2-4 @ 1.77% ▼ (-0.01)
1-4 @ 1.67% ▼ (-0.01)
3-4 @ 1.25% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.73%
Total : 31.87%
