Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.33%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.86%) and 3-2 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Ajax
47.33% ( 0.04)	20.8% ( -0)	31.87% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 72.24% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.74% (

0.01)

26.26% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

53.45% (

0.01)

46.55% (

-0.01)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.96% (

0.02)

12.04% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.48% (

0.03)

37.52% (

-0.03)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.13% (

-0.01)

17.87% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.35% (

-0.02)

48.65% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 47.33%

Ajax 31.87%

Draw 20.8%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.3% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.86% ( 0) 3-2 @ 5.05% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.82% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.56% 3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.67% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0) 4-3 @ 1.53% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 3.79% Total : 47.33%	1-1 @ 7.84% ( -0) 2-2 @ 7.15% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.9% 0-0 @ 2.15% ( -0) Other @ 0.77% Total : 20.8%	1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.88% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.7% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.77% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0) 3-4 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 3.73% Total : 31.87%