Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Standard Liege had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Standard Liege win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leuven would win this match.