Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 36.43%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.33%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (12.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.