Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 41.95%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Cerro	Draw	Nacional
29.83% ( 0.01)	28.21% ( 0.01)	41.95% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 45.87% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.97% (

-0.02)

60.03% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.74% (

-0.02)

80.26% (

0.02)

Cerro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.91% (

-0)

36.08% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.13% (

-0.01)

72.87% (

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.76% (

-0.02)

28.23% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.06% (

-0.02)

63.94% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Cerro 29.83%

Nacional 41.95%

Draw 28.2%

Cerro	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.69% 2-0 @ 5.29% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.27% 3-0 @ 1.8% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 29.83%	1-1 @ 13.13% 0-0 @ 10.18% 2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0) Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.2%	0-1 @ 12.88% 1-2 @ 8.3% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.15% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.5% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.43% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.09% ( -0) Other @ 1.71% Total : 41.95%