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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 12, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

River Plate
2 - 0
Nacional

Echeverri (15', 15'), Colidio (90+3', 90+3')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Polenta (57'), Polenta (57'), Castro (60'), Castro (60'), Baez (87'), Baez (87')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between River Plate and Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

River Plate

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: River Plate 2-1 Rosario
Monday, April 8 at 1am in Argentine Primera Division

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, April 6 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 72.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 10.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 3-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.04%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for River Plate in this match.

Result
River PlateDrawNacional
72.71% (0.070999999999998 0.07)16.92% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)10.37% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.82% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.56% (0.065999999999995 0.07)40.44% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.18% (0.068000000000005 0.07)62.82% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.27% (0.034999999999997 0.03)9.72% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.61% (0.081000000000003 0.08)32.39% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.97% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)47.02% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.49% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)82.5% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    River Plate 72.69%
    Nacional 10.37%
    Draw 16.92%
River PlateDrawNacional
2-0 @ 12.41%
1-0 @ 10.65% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 9.65% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.37% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.28% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 5.62% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 4.24% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.75%
5-0 @ 2.62% (0.012 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.98% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
6-0 @ 1.02% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 72.69%
1-1 @ 8.04% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.57% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.54% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.77%
Total : 16.92%
0-1 @ 3.45% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 3.03% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.3% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 10.37%

Head to Head
Dec 18, 2020 12.30am
Quarter-Finals
Nacional
2-6
River Plate
Cougo (45+2'), Rodriguez (55')
Rochet (18')
Carrascal (28'), De La Cruz (45'), Zuculini (50'), Borre (67', 74', 80')
Zuculini (27')
Dec 11, 2020 12.30am
Quarter-Finals
River Plate
2-0
Nacional