Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.37%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 25.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.