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Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 2nd Leg
Feb 28, 2024 at 10pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 0
Puerto Cabello

Bentancourt (59'), Carneiro (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Covea (25'), Silva (36'), Bravo (88')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Nacional and Academia Puerto Cabello.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Liverpool 1-1 Nacional
Sunday, February 25 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Puerto Cabello 0-2 Nacional
Wednesday, February 21 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Academia Puerto Cabello had a probability of 25.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.29%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for an Academia Puerto Cabello win it was 0-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawAcademia Puerto Cabello
46.63% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02) 27.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 25.86% (0.019000000000002 0.02)
Both teams to score 45.41% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.56% (0.018000000000001 0.02)59.43% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.19% (0.015000000000001 0.02)79.8% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.47% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)25.53% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.61% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)60.38% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Academia Puerto Cabello Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.97% (0.027999999999999 0.03)39.02% (-0.029999999999994 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.25% (0.026 0.03)75.74% (-0.029000000000011 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 46.63%
    Academia Puerto Cabello 25.86%
    Draw 27.5%
NacionalDrawAcademia Puerto Cabello
1-0 @ 13.6% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.29% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.74%
3-0 @ 4.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.98%
3-2 @ 1.87% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.44% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.36% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 46.63%
1-1 @ 12.79%
0-0 @ 9.96% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.11% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 27.5%
0-1 @ 9.37%
1-2 @ 6.02% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 4.41% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 1.89% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 1.38% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 25.86%

Head to Head
Feb 21, 2024 10pm
Second Round 1st Leg
Puerto Cabello
0-2
Nacional

Cobos (38'), Congo (40'), Celis (45')
Celis (51')
Sanabria (11'), Ebere (42' pen.)
Ebere (10'), Carneiro (27'), Castro (45')
rhs 2.0
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