Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 41.39%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 0-1 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.