Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.93%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 18.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.57%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.