Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 51.89%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 21.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.59%) and 1-2 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 1-0 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.