Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 53.37%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 21.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.4%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a La Luz win it was 1-0 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.