Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest La Luz win was 1-0 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.