Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest La Luz win was 1-0 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Danubio would win this match.