Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 35.35%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 34.98% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.22%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Penarol win was 1-0 (12.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.