Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 50.88%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.19%) and 1-2 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.61%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.