Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 36.77%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.49%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (12.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.