Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 37.16%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 31.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.52%) and 2-1 (6.93%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (13.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood.