Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 62.89%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 14.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.