Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.12%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 17.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.8%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.