Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.73%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 21.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.68%) and 1-2 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (8.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.