Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 37.26%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.37%) and 1-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (12.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.