Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 60.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 15.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.37%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 1-0 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.