Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.02%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 17.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.28%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.89%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.