Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 4
Sep 4, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Penarol

Nacional
3 - 1
Penarol

Laborda (45+1'), Suarez (53'), Candido (76')
Lozano (12'), Zabala (90+7')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Mendez (61')
Rak (14'), Rossi (77'), Lozano (86'), Da Silveira (90+8')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Penarol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

Last Six:
Last Game: Torque 0-3 Nacional
Saturday, August 27 at 10.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Penarol

Last Six:
Last Game: Penarol 1-1 Danubio
Sunday, August 28 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 22.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawPenarol
49.58% (-0.109 -0.11)27.58% (0.045999999999999 0.05)22.84% (0.062000000000001 0.06)
Both teams to score 42.59% (-0.052 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.34% (-0.1 -0.1)61.65% (0.099000000000004 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.52% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)81.48% (0.075000000000003 0.08)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.89% (-0.097000000000008 -0.1)25.11% (0.096 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.19% (-0.134 -0.13)59.81% (0.133 0.13)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.87% (0.0039999999999978 0)43.12% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)79.4% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 49.58%
    Penarol 22.84%
    Draw 27.57%
NacionalDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 14.96% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.34% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.7% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.76% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.01% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.69% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.65% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.38% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 49.58%
1-1 @ 12.58% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 10.82% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-2 @ 3.66% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 27.57%
0-1 @ 9.11% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 5.29% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.83% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.48% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.07% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.03% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.03%
Total : 22.84%

Head to Head
Feb 27, 2022 8pm
Penarol
1-0
Nacional
Ceppelini (32' pen.)
Arias (73')
Ceppelini (40')

Trezza (42'), Luis Rodriguez (49'), Gigliotti (77'), Trasante (90+4')
Gigliotti (82')
Oct 31, 2021 7pm
Penarol
0-0
Nacional

Ceppelini (59'), Gargano (78'), Dawson (90+2')

Carballo (13'), Trezza (45'), Polenta (56'), Zunino (59'), Almeida (80'), Ocampo (88')
Jul 23, 2021 1.30am
Penarol
0-1
Nacional

Acosta (62'), Gonzalez (83')
Musto (90+6')
Corujo (90+11')
Cantera (20'), Fernandez (62'), Trezza (83')
Carballo (90+4'), Cantera (90+10')
Jul 16, 2021 1.30am
Nacional
1-2
Penarol
Bergessio (90+5')
Marichal (65'), Mendez (76')
Canobbio (45+2'), Rodriguez (90+2')
Rodriguez (90+3')
Jul 4, 2021 8pm
Nacional
2-0
Penarol
Ocampo (71'), Candido (84')
Neves (12'), Trasante (52'), Corujo (58'), Cantera (79')

Trindade (22'), Kagelmacher (81'), Acosta (89')
rhs 2.0


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