Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 36.44%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 36% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 1-0 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.