Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 50.24%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.