Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.