Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 36.42%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 35.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.